When discussing the upcoming COP-15 Global Environmental conference in Copenhagen, many pundits suggest that there are so many differences of opinion between countries and within various countries, both developed and developing, that the chances for any kind of agreement will be slim to none. I believe these naysayers have completely ignored one of today's most powerful, global phenomena, the Obama Effect.
The United States President is in full court press mode on this subject, as is evidenced by his recent push at the G20 summit and his National Energy Summit which basically lays out how he believes the United States will lead in the Green Energy revolution. He is essentially changing the game that has been played by Business and Government thus far.
Under the Bush administration the whole subject was framed as a battle between business-economy and Government-Environment. Barrack Obama has already re-framed the message as "essential" to economic prosperity. He has re-framed the word "Green" in the American Lexicon into the word "competitive", and those businesses and Governments who ignore this simple marketing message, do so at their own financial peril. So do investors.
As an investor, if you are betting against the Green revolution taking center stage at Copenhagen, then you stand to lose and lose big. A number of major players on Wall Street are already positioning themselves to benefit from this giant green shift in business. Some have even laid out their entire investment horizon over the next 20 years, based solely on the Green revolution in business. It is talked about in terms of other monumental shifts in economic power such as the Industrial revolution and the Information revolution. It will make and break fortunes in the coming years, so if you haven't already, start doing your research.
Companies with first mover status in Wind Energy, Solar Energy, Electric batteries (for autos) and fuel cell power have made jumps between 100% and 150% in just the past 8 months. It is the start of what might become the largest bull market since Microsoft and Apple first emerged as the Information age began. Once the United States lays out it's plan to lead this new economic shift at the Copenhagen summit, other countries will have no choice but to play by the new rules, or be left behind once again as the future of energy will be dictated by the worlds largest and most diversified economy. Look for fossil fuel subsidies to be replaced by green energy subsidies. The shift will be monumental.
Don't miss this great ride which is only just beginning.
Manufacturing always follows an advance in technology. Automobile technology preceded Auto manufacturing. Aircraft technology preceded Aircraft manufacturing. Wireless technology preceded wireless manufacturing, and so on and so on.......
Just the same as when there was "any" technological advance in history, Nanomanufacturing (Nanoman) is following Nanotechnology (Nanotech). It is a natural course of business. Technology gets invented, business finds uses for that technology and engineers manufacture the instruments needed for that technology to deliver value to the masses.
In 2009, there are exciting things happening in Nanomanufacturing, however, to follow the jargon of the scientists and engineers making these things happen, is like an Englishman trying to understand someone speaking in Urdu. After awhile you get tired, throw up your hands and say, I don't understand. That is why much of the new technology in the pipeline is flying under the radar of investors, so they make the mistake that it doesn't really matter until someone in the investment community can explain it. That my friends, will be too late.
Thinking that nanotech or nanoman is new, is also a mistake. Many scientists agree that the birth of nanotechnology can be traced back to 1959 and a lecture and subsequent paper by Richard Fenyman called "There's plenty of room at the bottom"! The anniversary of that paper will no doubt be reflected upon in December of this year by those in the nano manufacturing community as the 50th anniversary of the birth of Nanotechnology.
Don't be surprised! Many technologies existed for decades before the masses became generally aware of their value to the human race. Fuel Cell Technology being one of them. That technology was first invented more than 100 years ago and it is only now gaining prominence as a revolutionary green technology with the ability to save the planet as the actual fuel cells are now being produced by manufacturers. Solar power has been toyed with for centuries as has wind power. Manufacturing and production is the last part of the evolutionary journey of every technology useful to mankind.
However, Nanomanufacturing will impact all of the above technologies, as well as, well, almost every other technology and industry on earth from Medicine to aerospace, from steel production to agriculture, from computers to camping. If it can be manufactured in the traditional sense, then someday, it will be manufactured at nanoscale. Without getting into all the details, here are just some of the products on the drawing boards of a number of companies racing to be first in their field:
1. Airplanes that weigh 6 times less than current airplanes, and can get 200 mpg of fuel.
2. Batteries, that look and feel like paper, but can deliver 6 times the power of any conventional battery and can be used as the "skin" of a vehicle, or as wall paper or any similar use. (oh yes, they're bio degradable too).
3. Steel that is six times lighter than, and 10 times stronger than current steel.
4. Injectable nanobots for cleaning your arteries of plaque buildup to avoid stroke.
5. Gold tipped nano solar arrays, that will increase the electrical production of solar panels by 100 fold.
6. Roof shingles that last longer than any current roof, and double as solar panels powering your home.
7. Clothes that are self cleaning, warm or cool your body in tandem with the weather, and act as battery packs for any devices you wish to operate.
8. Wall paper that can change color and design with the flick of a switch, and doubles as both TV and Computer screen in any size happen to want that day.
9. And how about using Seawater (Nano particles of sodium and water) as a battery to power electric vehicles, which is now being researched extensively by a California Company. (Jules Vern anyone)
I could go on and on, but you get the picture.
Many elements actually change their properties at the Nano level (One Billionth of a meter)
The Nanoman revolutions is upon us, so do your research and find out which companies are going to win in their respective markets, because those markets will be huge. If you wait until they are already shipping huge quantities of their products, and analysts are already covering them, it will be too late, because the big dogs will have already driven up the stocks by buying up the companies.
Nova Scotia (Gaelic for New Scotland) lies just north of New England where the North East gas pipeline travels down into the New England States and New York. The Horton Bluff lies in the Windsor Block of Nova Scotia, where a small gas driller, Triangle Petroleum Corporation, (TSX-V:TPE or OTCBB:TPLM) has been diligently drilling for natural gas on it's 475,000 acre play. It is a shale gas play that may be a sleeper and "under the radar", because of other, more high profile, U.S. gas plays.
If this field plays out the way Triangle believes it will, it will be more important than anything being currently developed in the south west U.S., because of it's quick access to the North East and it's hunger for green power. In fact, Triangle sold it's stake in Louisana to concentrate on this play this year.
Triangle, currently a penny stock trading at .15 today, is pure speculation, but I bought some anyway. I just couldn't pass because of the potential and proximity to one of the worlds biggest natural gas markets and a pipeline already in place carrying Sable Gas to New England..
That's 475,000 acres (huge area) with a 10 year production lease already secured in a Country favorable to drilling with a good tax regime and in close proximity to a major gas pipeline into the the huge U.S. North East Market. I just can't stay away.
If you don't like speculation, stay away. If you don't like making a "bet", stay away. But if your the betting type.....well.....
Just thought I'd mention it while Triangle Petroleum is still trading at only .15 per share.
update: Oct 21st, price at .13 - bought some more. update Nov 2nd, price at .10 - bought more.
Update from the company: Dec 1-09 Triangle hires new CEO Dr. Peter HILL
Dr. Peter Hill - Dr. Hill has over 37 years experience in the international oil and gas industry. He commenced his career in 1972 and spent 22 years in senior positions at British Petroleum including Chief Geologist, Chief of Staff for BP Exploration, President of BP Venezuela and Regional Director for Central and South America. Dr. Hill then worked as Vice President Exploration at Ranger Oil in England (1994-95), Managing Director Exploration and Production at Deminex in Germany (1995-97), Technical Director/Chief Operating Officer at Hardy Oil & Gas (1998-2000), President & CEO at Harvest Natural Resources (2000-2005), Director/Chairman at Austral Pacific Energy (2006-2008), independent advisor to Palo Alto (2008 to present) and Non Executive Chairman at Toreador Resources Corporation (2009 to present). Dr. Hill has a BSc Honors Geology and a PhD.
In our previous article : The argument for Gold, we first updated you on Gold's value in this market, and the hidden gem that is Apollo Gold, and it's Black Fox and Grey Fox Mines near Timmons Ontario. The story just got a little more interesting today!
Apollo Gold announced today, the assay results of 7 holes (out of 29 drilled) during it's drilling program in August at it's Grey Fox site and those results are excellent! We are still awaiting the results of the other 21 holes which should be released near the end of October.
This reinforces my reasoning for increasing my holdings through Sept and Oct and I believe there is more good news to come. Gold Analysts from The Gold Report had this company at a strong buy before the drilling at "Grey Fox" even began, with a minimum target price between $1 and $2.79 (it is currently trading at .58) Those estimates were solely based on Apollo's new production at it's "Black Fox" Mine (approx 40,000 oz) since June and did not even consider the drilling at Grey Fox nor Apollo's recent acquisition of the 3.5 km "Pike River" property which straddles these two diamonds in the rough since it started drilling core at Grey Fox.
I expect those estimates to be greatly revised upwards over the next few months and into the 2010 Q1 reports. Here are those initial Assay results from Apollo Gold.
PS: I would like to address a comment about gold investments by the venerable oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett who said: " Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their heads"
Gold has, in fact, great utility! Gold is the best conductor of electricity on the planet. If it were not for the high price (and high utility value) every household would have gold electrical wires instead of copper. Every electrician out there knows this simple fact.
Gold is used in Medicine, Dentistry, Industry, aeronautics, space flight, electronics, computers and food production not to mention the massive international jewelry trade and as a hedge against devaluing currencies.
Currently, The Chinese Government is buying gold, and telling it's citizens to do the same. The Hong Kong government is actually in the process of moving it's gold reserves from London Banks, to it's own territory. In places as far flung as Istanbul Turkey, and Indonesia, people are buying up gold as a store of value against what the world perceives as a quickly weakening U.S. dollar. Gold has a 6,000-year history of preserving value against fiat currencies like the greenback.
Having regard to the above, I believe that, 2,000 oz gold is the "low end" of what is coming in 2010 and I believe that Apollo Gold is severely undervalued.
Update Oct 23rd - Apollo Gold signed an agreement with Elkhorn minerals to sell it's interest in the Montana Tunnels for $9 Million. This is another clear indication that Apollo Gold is clearing it's slate to concentrate on it's Grey Fox and Black Fox properties near Timmons Ontario which may be the largest pure gold discovery in the past 30 years.
Analyst Reports on Apollo Gold:(Which don't include the Grey Fox Drill Results)
1. . . .We continue to recommend the shares of Apollo Gold Corp. with a SECTOR OUTPERFORM rating." -KERRY SMITH, HAYWOOD SECURITIES (10/16/09)
2. "We have left our assumptions for 2010 unchanged, resulting in no effect on our $1.00 target price and SECTOR OUTPERFORM rating" for Apollo Gold.
--TARA HASSAN, M PARTNERS (09/30/09)
3..."Apollo Gold is very much a strong buy, an aggressive buy".
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) now NYSE/Euronext, founded in 1909 is under attack. Not from terrorists, but from upstart electronic exchanges that are continually taking market share from the "Big Board"! As of this date, only 37% of "all" trades in the USA are actually conducted on NYSE.
The rest are conducted on smaller, more nimble, electronic exchanges, known mostly to only the brokers and trading companies. Some are considered "Dark Pools" where major traders have an advantage of seconds over average investors, and not even the SEC or other regulators actually have an indication of just how much trading occurs.
NYSE is fighting back with it's ARCA exchange in Chicago which conducts about 11% of all trades, and holds sway in the giant Derivatives Market. It is also building electronic trading centers in New Jersey and London.
The largest upstart, however, is a direct competitor which is not much known outside of trading circles. The "Direct Edge" Exchange is located in Jersey City and may conduct as much as 15% of all trades conducted in the United States.
The "BATS" Exchange is a small, quiet operation in Kansas City Kansas, far away from the hustle and bustle of Manhattan, but doing about 11% of the nations stock trading. As a direct result of all of this activity, the NYSE/Euronext has lost almost 75% of it's stock value, traded on it's own exchange. The Canadian TMX group is also quietly researching U.S. cities for a stake in the game.
Even the venerable London Stock Exchange (LSE) is under pressure from smaller exchanges popping up on the continent. After dominating trading in Europe for 208 years, the LSE is losing business to upstart electronic exchanges at a fast rate. Up from only 8.5% last year to over 20% this year. Small upstarts are taking market share at unprecedented speed. Speed? Well that is the issue, isn't it. At this writing, the LSE is in talks to buy an electronic exchange called "Turquoise" which was set up in Europe by seven investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. London recently bought a small tech service company called MillenniumIT located in Sri Lanka. We are indeed investing in a Global village of trading platforms now.
Many of these upstarts got their start from disgruntled traders and investment houses tired of the huge fees and glacial movements of these monoliths of the capitalist system. Basically, 18th and 19th century ideas for trading don't really belong in the 21st century. The basic premise of trading does, but not the execution nor the idea that a privileged position on an exchange should give one segment of the investment community, the upper hand over others. Ominously, the "others" have now gained a similar advantage utilizing super computers and "flash trading"! No doubt, it's the same old crowd with new toys and a new privileged position. The more things change, the more they stay the same. "Wall Street" as it is referred to by the media these days, is not actually a street in New York anymore, but a club of high speed traders, in various pockets of electronic trading circles. As George Carlin once said "It's a big club, and your not in it"!
Being the catalysts for biggest players in the "Big Club" the NYSE and LSE are being hauled kicking and screaming into the 21st century. People don't give up privilege easily, unless, of course, it is replaced by more privilege. In the mean time, the smaller, more nimble upstarts will gain market share, and that gives opportunity to small fries like us.
In Chicago, which has dominated the derivatives market (futures, options etc) for almost as long, the same thing is occurring. CBOE, CBOT, CME, CFE have consolidated and merged operations to try and fend off high speed electronic futures exchanges and Options Exchanges like the ISE, ICE, ELX, OMX, OneChicago and EUREX, etc. There are also many trading companies that have developed or are developing their own, proprietary, electronic trading platforms. The exchange business is now a horse race, no longer dominated by the old favorites. It is Capitalism at it's best, and it's worst. Could this race be the next catalyst for calamity in the markets? No one knows for sure. Today the U.S. is implementing a strategy for regulating of the Derivatives Market.
If you are betting on this race, bet on the smaller, faster horses to win in the "short term". But don't discount the big dogs in the long run. That is why they are called big dogs.
It’s bragging time!While I know full well that a “rising tide floats all boats” I also know that some boats are faster than others.Since January the S&P/TSX is up 25.2% so if you had bought a simple index fund you would be in the money by that amount minus .5% of your entire portfolio.
However, if you had invested along with me this year, here is what your returns would be at this point in the calendar:
Now, if you had sold your U.S. Cash into the Canada buck when I did in January, this small simple transaction would have returned for you over 27.6% or more than the entire index.
To update these picks, I have sold approx 75% of my TD Stock (anytime you get a lift of 96% on a bank stock you take profit, period) however I am holding on to the rest as I still see great upside in all four of these picks. I also have some low PER mutual funds and my near term use funds are in money market funds.
I hope you have done as well with your Retirefund this year to date; however the year is not over and there is much more to be made. Of the four stocks I am keeping I expect that, even though their returns have been great, Ballard Power, and Apollo Gold have the momentum to double in the next two months with good upside beyond in early 2010. Wilan Technologies is still a sleeper with upside in the 300% range in my opinion, over the next 12 months, because of it’s 750 wireless patents. Corridor Resources is a small gas play with takeover potential.
I have increased my holdings in Apollo gold twice this month, since buying in at .45 My last purchase was at .55 as I believe that this stock has the most upside potential of all four.
Alvin Toffler, in his insightful work ‘The Third Wave’, pointed out that humanity has achieved three revolutionary shifts of civilization throughout history. Firstly, the Agricultural Revolution enabled humanity to accumulate much wealth. The Industrial Revolution made possible mass production of industrial products, and The Information Revolution transformed the ways people think, work, and enjoy life.
Now, we are witnessing the newest, most powerful revolution of all time: The “Green Revolution.” It will change the way we power this planet. It will change the way we live, work, travel and more importantly, from an investment point of view, the way we invest. The catalyst for these massive changes may be the COP 15 Climate Change meeting in Copenhagen on Dec 7th 2009.
Make no mistake. This is one of "the" most important international conferences of our lifetime. If agreements can be reached in even some basic areas being discussed, then this meeting will have as much impact on your life as the Industrial revolution had for your great grandfather. Strictly from a monetary point of view, it will dwarf the financial impact of the information revolution of the 20th century. We are already seeing major investment houses moving into the green energy sector in a big way.
This year, Wind and Solar companies have posted significant increases in their stock prices. So how can you benefit from this monumental shift in investment strategy when any company with even a chance to advance in this industry is making investors money? PEM fuel cells, that's where! Fuel cells burning, at first, natural gas, and eventually pure hydrogen. This the future of energy on this planet. Wind and Solar will be "bit players" in comparison!
For over 20 years a Canadian company has been developing PEM fuel cell technology and this year it began shipping various product to buyers in the U.S., Canada, India, Europe and soon China. This company is so entrenched in this industry that it holds hundreds of the original patents for the underlying technology and has spawned from it's ranks, other companies with offshoot technologies. Three of them are, Fuel Cell Technologies, Plug Power and Hydrogenics. They are often referred to as "Baby Ballards" after the original fuel cell champion, Ballard Power systems of Vancouver, British Columbia.
After Chrysler and Ford bought into Ballard in a big way, about 7 years ago, investors took notice and drove up the stock. Since then, because of the slow pace of the "Auto" part of the technology, investors lost interest and the stock price dove below $2.00 after Ballard sold off it's "Auto" technology to these industry players.
Investors have short attention spans, don't they? Sometimes I wonder if investors can see the big picture at all. Most are simply traders, and not investors. At this time in history, Ballard Power is a "diamond" in the rough of the green energy revolution, and investors who are paying attention stand to increase their wealth tremendously.
It is not in the auto industry that this company will dominate. It is in clean energy production in general, replacing major power plants with giant fuel cell stacks burning, at first, Natural Gas and eventually pure Hydrogen. It is in the propulsion systems of buses, forklifts, ships and trains that Ballard will eventually make it's very big mark in the Green Energy Space. It is also in back up power generation like that recently shipped to India for their wireless systems. 310 fuel cell generators are being shipped to India by Dec 31st. It is the start of an order for 10,000 fuel cell generators to one of the most dynamic growing economies on the planet. This contract alone could end up being 30,000 generators, and that is only "one part" of Ballard's expertise.
Hydrogen fuel cell cars? Possibly! Electric cars? possibly! Even if electric cars win out, where will the electrical power come from. It will come from power plants incorporating giant fuel cell stacks, manufactured by Ballard Power Systems, and replacing dirty Coal, Oil and even Nuclear plants.
Green energy is not the only green that will be produced by this sleeping tech giant. I have owned Ballard for over 9 years, and this year, because of their production in these areas, I increased my holdings tenfold. My money is where my mouth is, where is yours?
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